In the year 2026, everything is gambling now. I don’t just mean how there are more casinos everywhere (although there are) or how sports betting has pervaded everything (although it has), but now we have prop bets, “prediction markets” (that are basically just sports betting, but also about other things), online gambling that lets you access things like blackjack and poker on your phone, online gambling that lets you play things like high stakes plinko or bet on how high a number goes before it crashes.
And then there’s cryptocurrency, which is less a currency and more just a way to speculate on other people being hopefully dumber and/or greedier than you. Especially when you move away from Bitcoin (which is basically an asset now – still not really a currency because it’s not useful, but no worse an “investment” than incredibly volatile stock) and into the world of “memecoins” where the idea is basically to mint, hype your trash token to a bunch of rubes, and then liquidate and pocket all the money. (Or in other words, bet some money, and then watch the line go up and sell before it crashes, just like that game at the end of the last paragraph.)
It’s not just that these things exist (which is mildly problematic on its own), but they’ve become even more accessible than ever. You used to have to go to a casino or sportsbook (or a guy at the bar or whatever) but now you just install an app or go to a website, type in your credit card info (or buy some “sweepstakes coins” – more on that later), and you’re ready to start betting. On sports, it’s just an endless scroll of games and buttons to tap to immediately place a bet. Click “See More” or whatever it is in your app of choice and suddenly instead of just picking winners, you’re picking who’s going to score, what the first play is going to be, or longer-term bets like which teams are going to win the championship. I even like sports betting and have had some minor success at it, but the day it launched in my home state, I remember thinking both “Sweet, gonna do this all the time now” but also “Uh, maybe this is a little too easy.”
But if you want to bet on things like elections (or be even more of a ghoul and bet on things like wars and assassinations) there’s “prediction markets” like Kalshi and Polymarket. The CEO of Kalshi says his goal is to financialize every difference in opinion, and that’s basically what these “markets” do. (I don’t see any markets specifically open about murders; maybe they don’t allow that, but there are some on Polymarket now about if/when the US will launch a strike on Iran or Russia capturing particular Ukrainian cities.) If you think something will happen, you can find that market and buy the “shares” in the outcome. The price of a share is based on the calculated odds (every “winning” share pays out $1, and you can find shares for sale from anywhere from $0.003 up to $0.998 depending on the market), but then you can also sell that share to some other sucker along the way. It’s like betting on your bets! (Or like options trading for people who are even less informed about how trading works!)
How is this legal? For sports betting, it’s legal because sports. (Even before sports betting was allowed to be legalized nationwide, there was a special exception for horse racing – gambling has always been ok when it supports a particular industry.) For “prediction markets” it’s legal because you’re buying tradable contracts, which is totally not betting. For sites like Stake, you buy fake money in bundles (and they inflate the fake money, so for like $50, you get 500,000 Gold Coins (that have no cash value and aren’t redeemable in any way) but then you also get a FREE BONUS of 50 sweepstakes coins (or whatever any given site calls them) that you can also play with, and those sweepstakes coins are redeemable for cash and prizes! You’re not gambling with money, you’re buying tokens and then you can win more tokens and trade your tokens for money! (Yes, that’s how it works in a casino, but generally, casino games online are not legal, barring a few jurisdictions where they are, like Pennsylvania, where I have managed to lose tens of dollars like a quarter at a time playing blackjack on my phone. Even I’m not immune to this nonsense.)
Look, I like to gamble. I think it’s fun. I bet on sports; I go to casinos; I play the lottery; I play poker. Do I sometimes win? Yes. Do I usually lose? At some of those, yes. (I think I’m profitable over my lifetime at poker and sports betting; I have definitely never won the lottery.) Would it be better for my finances if I just never did any of it? Obviously. I would also have more money if I never bought board games or went on vacation or ate at restaurants, and I’m never going to stop doing those things, either.
Is it destructive? Not for me personally(other than having lost money), but in general, probably. States with legalized sports gambling have overall lower credit scores, more bankruptcies, and more debts in collections. And that’s just the regulated sportsbooks that are licensed by gaming commissions and required to provide things like self-limiting, self-exclusion, and information to assist with gambling addictions. Kalshi at least has a disclaimer at the bottom of the page that trading incurs risk (although no links or phone numbers for addiction) and Polymarket not only doesn’t have anything like that at the bottom of the page, but it doesn’t even have a bottom of the page! If you keep holding Page Down or spinning your scroll wheel, you just keep getting more markets forever! (Okay, one, it’s probably not “forever” but I’m not gonna find the bottom and two, there is page footer with links, but those also don’t provide any help getting your out of your downward spiral of betting on the over/under on the number of views on the next Mr. Beast video or whether there will be a Magnitude 10 earthquake this year.) Despite being sketchy as hell, Stake does have a big section of their website about responsible gaming, so that’s cool. (They also have leaderboards where you can rank up by betting more, so that’s not great.)
It’s obnoxious. It used to be that gambling was weird and sketchy, but now ESPN not only talks about the lines in the pregame coverage, but also now runs their own sportsbook. And everything is sponsored by sportsbooks now. Your game gets interrupted constantly by reminders that you could be betting right now! You can bet mid-game! How are your bets doing?! You know that parody from Family Guy where the “subliminal message” about smoking was just a guy yelling “SMOKE”? It’s basically that. (Oh god, can you imagine the advertising for weed if that gets fully legalized?)
So yeah, it’s a way to squeeze more money out of people who don’t have any. It’s addictive, and it’s everywhere. It’s kinda fun. It’s probably fine. Probably. Not the downfall of society at all.